Round 4 · 2026 Season

Miami Grand Prix

Miami International Autodrome · USA · 2026-05-03

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Mode Pre-Qualifying (pace estimate)
Overtaking Index 0.55 (55% pace / 45% grid)
Qualifying has not yet taken place. Grid positions are estimated from pace rankings. Predictions will update automatically once qualifying results are available.

Race Predictions

FiveStat Model
1
George Russell
Mercedes
31.6%
win probability
Podium 63.9% Points 90.7%
2
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
21.5%
win probability
Podium 54.8% Points 90.6%
3
Max Verstappen
Red Bull
12.7%
win probability
Podium 41.9% Points 89.3%
Driver Team Grid DPR CPI Win % Podium % Points % xPos xFP
George Russell Mercedes P1 -0.359% -1.840%
31.6%
63.9%
90.7% 4.7 11.2
Charles Leclerc Ferrari P2 -0.382% -1.546%
21.5%
54.8%
90.6% 5.1 9.4
Max Verstappen Red Bull P3 -1.256% -0.300%
12.7%
41.9%
89.3% 5.8 7.1
Lando Norris McLaren P4 -0.087% -1.446%
11.2%
37.7%
88.1% 6.2 7.0
Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P5 +0.397% -1.840%
8.5%
31.4%
87.1% 6.5 6.6
Oscar Piastri McLaren P6 +0.089% -1.446%
7.1%
27.0%
85.1% 7.0 6.4
Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P7 +0.386% -1.546%
4.6%
19.7%
81.0% 7.7 5.3
Nico Hülkenberg Audi P8 -0.535% +0.065%
1.2%
8.5%
69.3% 9.3 2.4
Isack Hadjar Red Bull P9 -0.045% -0.300%
0.8%
6.0%
62.3% 10.2 1.8
Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team P10 -0.323% +0.267%
0.5%
3.6%
51.5% 11.2 0.8
Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team P11 +0.170% -0.008%
0.2%
2.1%
43.7% 11.9 0.4
Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P12 -0.203% +0.507%
0.1%
1.3%
34.3% 12.8 -0.1
Liam Lawson RB F1 Team P13 +0.503% -0.008%
0.1%
1.0%
27.7% 13.7 -0.5
Carlos Sainz Williams P14 -0.176% +0.711%
0.0%
0.4%
24.5% 13.9 0.1
Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team P15 +0.327% +0.267%
0.0%
0.3%
19.8% 14.5 0.6
Jack Doohan Alpine F1 Team P16 +0.353% +0.267%
0.0%
0.2%
15.9% 15.0 1.4
Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P17 +0.210% +0.507%
0.0%
0.3%
13.1% 15.4 2.4
Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P18 +0.670% +0.065%
0.0%
0.1%
10.4% 15.9 3.2
Alexander Albon Williams P19 +0.179% +0.711%
0.0%
0.0%
7.8% 16.6 3.7
Yuki Tsunoda Red Bull P20 +1.324% -0.300%
0.0%
0.0%
4.7% 17.2 4.3
Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team P21 -0.497% +1.963%
0.0%
0.0%
1.7% 18.6 3.3
Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P22 -0.204% +2.250%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7% 19.7 3.0
Lance Stroll Aston Martin P23 +0.207% +2.250%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3% 20.4 3.6
Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team P24 +0.503% +1.963%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2% 20.6 5.2

How this works

Each driver's pace score combines their Constructor Pace Index (car speed vs field) and Driver Pace Rating (speed vs teammate). This is blended with their qualifying grid position using a circuit-specific overtaking index - circuits like Monaco weight grid position heavily; circuits like Monza weight pure pace. 10,000 race simulations are run, each drawing from a normal distribution of race randomness with an 8% DNF probability per driver. Win, podium and points probabilities are tallied across all simulations.

When qualifying has not yet taken place, grid positions are estimated from pace rankings.