Formula 1 · F1 Fantasy

F1 Fantasy Planner

Expected fantasy points, transfer targets and season projections - built on FiveStat's pace model.

Next Race xFP - Belgian Grand Prix

FiveStat Model

Expected fantasy points for the next race. Based on win/podium/points probabilities, positions gained vs grid, and fastest lap probability.

Rank	Driver	Team	xFP	Win %	Podium %	Points %	xPos
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	10.7	22.9%	55.0%	90.1%	5.2
2	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	10.5	25.4%	57.3%	89.9%	5.1
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	7.9	13.9%	42.6%	88.7%	5.9
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	7.9	12.3%	38.9%	87.4%	6.2
5	George Russell	Mercedes	7.7	10.1%	34.1%	86.6%	6.4
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	6.3	7.2%	26.1%	82.9%	7.2
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	4.8	4.4%	18.3%	77.5%	8.1
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	3.1	1.8%	11.2%	70.0%	9.1
9	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	2.2	0.0%	0.0%	4.8%	17.5
10	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	1.9	0.0%	0.1%	10.3%	16.1
11	Alexander Albon	Williams	1.9	0.0%	0.1%	6.7%	16.9
12	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	1.3	0.0%	0.1%	11.6%	15.8
13	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	1.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	21.1
14	Carlos Sainz	Williams	1.2	0.0%	0.5%	20.4%	14.5
15	Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	0.9	0.0%	0.3%	14.2%	15.4
16	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	0.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	20.5
17	Franco Colapinto	Alpine F1 Team	0.8	0.1%	1.0%	28.6%	13.5
18	Jack Doohan	Alpine F1 Team	0.8	0.0%	0.7%	24.0%	14.1
19	Pierre Gasly	Alpine F1 Team	0.3	0.7%	4.8%	53.5%	11.0
20	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	0.3	0.5%	3.8%	47.7%	11.5
21	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	20.1
22	Liam Lawson	RB F1 Team	-0.0	0.2%	1.4%	30.7%	13.5
23	Yuki Tsunoda	Red Bull	-0.1	0.3%	2.2%	40.2%	12.3
24	Arvid Lindblad	RB F1 Team	-0.4	0.1%	1.5%	33.4%	13.0

Transfer Targets

FiveStat Model

Best picks by summed xFP across the next 1, 3, and 5 races. Use for short holds, medium holds, and season picks.

Rank	Driver	Team	Total xFP	Per Race	Race Breakdown
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	10.7	10.7	Belgian: 10.7
2	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	10.5	10.5	Belgian: 10.5
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	7.9	7.9	Belgian: 7.9
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	7.9	7.9	Belgian: 7.9
5	George Russell	Mercedes	7.7	7.7	Belgian: 7.7
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	6.3	6.3	Belgian: 6.3
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	4.8	4.8	Belgian: 4.8
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	3.1	3.1	Belgian: 3.1
9	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	2.2	2.2	Belgian: 2.2
10	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	1.9	1.9	Belgian: 1.9
11	Alexander Albon	Williams	1.9	1.9	Belgian: 1.9
12	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	1.3	1.3	Belgian: 1.3
13	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	1.3	1.3	Belgian: 1.3
14	Carlos Sainz	Williams	1.2	1.2	Belgian: 1.2
15	Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	0.9	0.9	Belgian: 0.9

Rank	Driver	Team	Total xFP	Per Race	Race Breakdown
1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	33.4	11.1	Belgian: 10.5 Hungarian: 11.5 Dutch: 11.4
2	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	32.1	10.7	Belgian: 10.7 Hungarian: 10.7 Dutch: 10.7
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	24.9	8.3	Belgian: 7.9 Hungarian: 8.5 Dutch: 8.5
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	23.5	7.8	Belgian: 7.9 Hungarian: 7.8 Dutch: 7.8
5	George Russell	Mercedes	22.0	7.3	Belgian: 7.7 Hungarian: 7.1 Dutch: 7.2
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	18.2	6.1	Belgian: 6.3 Hungarian: 5.9 Dutch: 6.0
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	14.0	4.7	Belgian: 4.8 Hungarian: 4.6 Dutch: 4.6
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	9.8	3.3	Belgian: 3.1 Hungarian: 3.4 Dutch: 3.3
9	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	4.7	1.6	Belgian: 2.2 Hungarian: 1.2 Dutch: 1.3
10	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	4.4	1.5	Belgian: 1.3 Hungarian: 1.6 Dutch: 1.5
11	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	4.0	1.3	Belgian: 1.9 Hungarian: 1.0 Dutch: 1.1
12	Alexander Albon	Williams	4.0	1.3	Belgian: 1.9 Hungarian: 1.0 Dutch: 1.1
13	Pierre Gasly	Alpine F1 Team	3.3	1.1	Belgian: 0.3 Hungarian: 1.6 Dutch: 1.4
14	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	3.1	1.0	Belgian: 0.9 Hungarian: 1.1 Dutch: 1.1
15	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	2.6	0.9	Belgian: 1.3 Hungarian: 0.6 Dutch: 0.7

Rank	Driver	Team	Total xFP	Per Race	Race Breakdown
1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	54.6	10.9	Belgian: 10.5 Hungarian: 11.5 Dutch: 11.4 Italian: 10.3 Spanish: 10.9
2	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	53.4	10.7	Belgian: 10.7 Hungarian: 10.7 Dutch: 10.7 Italian: 10.7 Spanish: 10.6
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	40.9	8.2	Belgian: 7.9 Hungarian: 8.5 Dutch: 8.5 Italian: 7.8 Spanish: 8.2
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	39.2	7.8	Belgian: 7.9 Hungarian: 7.8 Dutch: 7.8 Italian: 7.9 Spanish: 7.8
5	George Russell	Mercedes	37.5	7.5	Belgian: 7.7 Hungarian: 7.1 Dutch: 7.2 Italian: 8.0 Spanish: 7.5
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	30.8	6.2	Belgian: 6.3 Hungarian: 5.9 Dutch: 6.0 Italian: 6.4 Spanish: 6.2
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	23.5	4.7	Belgian: 4.8 Hungarian: 4.6 Dutch: 4.6 Italian: 4.8 Spanish: 4.7
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	16.0	3.2	Belgian: 3.1 Hungarian: 3.4 Dutch: 3.3 Italian: 2.9 Spanish: 3.3
9	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	9.1	1.8	Belgian: 2.2 Hungarian: 1.2 Dutch: 1.3 Italian: 2.6 Spanish: 1.8
10	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	7.8	1.6	Belgian: 1.9 Hungarian: 1.0 Dutch: 1.1 Italian: 2.3 Spanish: 1.5
11	Alexander Albon	Williams	7.7	1.5	Belgian: 1.9 Hungarian: 1.0 Dutch: 1.1 Italian: 2.2 Spanish: 1.5
12	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	7.0	1.4	Belgian: 1.3 Hungarian: 1.6 Dutch: 1.5 Italian: 1.2 Spanish: 1.4
13	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	5.1	1.0	Belgian: 1.3 Hungarian: 0.6 Dutch: 0.7 Italian: 1.5 Spanish: 1.0
14	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	4.9	1.0	Belgian: 0.9 Hungarian: 1.1 Dutch: 1.1 Italian: 0.8 Spanish: 1.0
15	Carlos Sainz	Williams	4.7	0.9	Belgian: 1.2 Hungarian: 0.5 Dutch: 0.6 Italian: 1.5 Spanish: 0.9

Season xFP Projection

FiveStat Model

Projected total fantasy points across the remaining 13 races. Completed race actuals combined with model projections.

Rank	Driver	Team	Actual FP (so far)	Proj. Remaining FP	Final XFP	Champ Pts
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	288.0	138.6	426.6	179
2	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	238.0	106.5	344.5	147
3	George Russell	Mercedes	203.0	97.7	300.7	154
4	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	128.0	141.5	269.5	76
5	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	163.0	101.7	264.7	108
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	75.0	80.4	155.4	97
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	83.0	61.0	144.0	82
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	83.0	41.7	124.7	52
9	Liam Lawson	RB F1 Team	110.0	1.4	111.4	39
10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine F1 Team	82.0	10.3	92.3	42
11	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	64.0	13.3	77.3	3
12	Franco Colapinto	Alpine F1 Team	64.0	9.2	73.2	18
13	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	28.0	20.3	48.3	18
14	Arvid Lindblad	RB F1 Team	40.0	-1.0	39.0	20
15	Carlos Sainz	Williams	24.0	12.4	36.4	6
16	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	0.0	23.8	23.8	–
17	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	15.0	8.2	23.2	6
18	Jack Doohan	Alpine F1 Team	0	8.5	8.5	–
19	Yuki Tsunoda	Red Bull	0	2.8	2.8	–
20	Alexander Albon	Williams	-45.0	20.1	-24.9	5
21	Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	-46.0	9.1	-36.9	–
22	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	-60.0	18.0	-42.0	–
23	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	-49.0	5.1	-43.9	1
24	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	-103.0	12.8	-90.2	–

How xFP is calculated

Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) uses FiveStat's race prediction probabilities to estimate each driver's likely fantasy score. Finish position points (25 for 1st down to 1 for 10th) are weighted by win/podium/points probabilities. A -20 DNF penalty is applied at 8% probability per driver. Fastest lap (+5) is distributed proportionally by win probability. Grid position vs expected finish position determines positions gained/lost bonuses.

Season projections use actual fantasy points from completed races (calculated from real results) combined with xFP model projections for remaining rounds. Transfer targets rank drivers by summed xFP over the next 1, 3, or 5 races.