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F1 Fantasy Planner

Expected fantasy points, transfer targets and season projections - built on FiveStat's pace model.

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Next Race xFP - Miami Grand Prix

FiveStat Model

Expected fantasy points for the next race. Based on win/podium/points probabilities, positions gained vs grid, and fastest lap probability.

Rank Driver Team xFP Win % Podium % Points % xPos
1 George Russell Mercedes 11.2 31.6% 63.9% 90.7% 4.7
2 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 9.4 21.5% 54.8% 90.6% 5.1
3 Max Verstappen Red Bull 7.1 12.7% 41.9% 89.3% 5.8
4 Lando Norris McLaren 7.0 11.2% 37.7% 88.1% 6.2
5 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 6.6 8.5% 31.4% 87.1% 6.5
6 Oscar Piastri McLaren 6.4 7.1% 27.0% 85.1% 7.0
7 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 5.3 4.6% 19.7% 81.0% 7.7
8 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 20.6
9 Yuki Tsunoda Red Bull 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 17.2
10 Alexander Albon Williams 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 16.6
11 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 3.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 20.4
12 Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 18.6
13 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 3.2 0.0% 0.1% 10.4% 15.9
14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 19.7
15 Nico Hülkenberg Audi 2.4 1.2% 8.5% 69.3% 9.3
16 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 2.4 0.0% 0.3% 13.1% 15.4
17 Isack Hadjar Red Bull 1.8 0.8% 6.0% 62.3% 10.2
18 Jack Doohan Alpine F1 Team 1.4 0.0% 0.2% 15.9% 15.0
19 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team 0.8 0.5% 3.6% 51.5% 11.2
20 Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team 0.6 0.0% 0.3% 19.8% 14.5
21 Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team 0.4 0.2% 2.1% 43.7% 11.9
22 Carlos Sainz Williams 0.1 0.0% 0.4% 24.5% 13.9
23 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team -0.1 0.1% 1.3% 34.3% 12.8
24 Liam Lawson RB F1 Team -0.5 0.1% 1.0% 27.7% 13.7

Transfer Targets

FiveStat Model

Best picks by summed xFP across the next 1, 3, and 5 races. Use for short holds, medium holds, and season picks.

Rank Driver Team Total xFP Per Race Race Breakdown
1 George Russell Mercedes 11.2 11.2 Miami: 11.2
2 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 9.4 9.4 Miami: 9.4
3 Max Verstappen Red Bull 7.1 7.1 Miami: 7.1
4 Lando Norris McLaren 7.0 7.0 Miami: 7.0
5 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 6.6 6.6 Miami: 6.6
6 Oscar Piastri McLaren 6.4 6.4 Miami: 6.4
7 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 5.3 5.3 Miami: 5.3
8 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team 5.2 5.2 Miami: 5.2
9 Yuki Tsunoda Red Bull 4.3 4.3 Miami: 4.3
10 Alexander Albon Williams 3.7 3.7 Miami: 3.7
11 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 3.6 3.6 Miami: 3.6
12 Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team 3.3 3.3 Miami: 3.3
13 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 3.2 3.2 Miami: 3.2
14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 3.0 3.0 Miami: 3.0
15 Nico Hülkenberg Audi 2.4 2.4 Miami: 2.4

Season xFP Projection

FiveStat Model

Projected total fantasy points across the remaining 19 races. Completed race actuals combined with model projections.

Rank Driver Team Actual FP (so far) Proj. Remaining FP Final XFP Champ Pts
1 George Russell Mercedes 53 212.1 265.1 63
2 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 46 179.1 225.1 49
3 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 78 126.3 204.3 72
4 Max Verstappen Red Bull 31 135.6 166.6 12
5 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 41 100.6 141.6 41
6 Lando Norris McLaren 2 133.5 135.5 25
7 Oscar Piastri McLaren -20 121.5 101.5 21
8 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team -6 99.6 93.6 –
9 Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team 20 62.3 82.3 –
10 Yuki Tsunoda Red Bull 0 79.7 79.7 –
11 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 16 46.5 62.5 17
12 Alexander Albon Williams -17 69.7 52.7 –
13 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi -20 61.6 41.6 2
14 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team 25 14.6 39.6 15
15 Carlos Sainz Williams 32 2.4 34.4 2
16 Nico Hülkenberg Audi -16 45.9 29.9 –
17 Jack Doohan Alpine F1 Team 0 27.7 27.7 –
18 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin -34 57.6 23.6 –
19 Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team 8 11.9 19.9 1
20 Liam Lawson RB F1 Team 27 -9.3 17.7 10
21 Isack Hadjar Red Bull -18 33.9 15.9 4
22 Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team 8 7.8 15.8 4
23 Lance Stroll Aston Martin -60 68.6 8.6 –
24 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 8 -1.6 6.4 1

How xFP is calculated

Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) uses FiveStat's race prediction probabilities to estimate each driver's likely fantasy score. Finish position points (25 for 1st down to 1 for 10th) are weighted by win/podium/points probabilities. A -20 DNF penalty is applied at 8% probability per driver. Fastest lap (+5) is distributed proportionally by win probability. Grid position vs expected finish position determines positions gained/lost bonuses.

Season projections use actual fantasy points from completed races (calculated from real results) combined with xFP model projections for remaining rounds. Transfer targets rank drivers by summed xFP over the next 1, 3, or 5 races.