Formula 1 · F1 Fantasy

F1 Fantasy Planner

Expected fantasy points, transfer targets and season projections - built on FiveStat's pace model.

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Next Race xFP - United States Grand Prix

FiveStat Model

Expected fantasy points for the next race. Based on win/podium/points probabilities, positions gained vs grid, and fastest lap probability.

Rank Driver Team xFP Win % Podium % Points %
1 Max Verstappen Red Bull 11.9 29.5% 61.7% 90.2%
2 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 10.4 21.8% 54.1% 89.9%
3 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 8.5 14.6% 45.4% 88.8%
4 Lando Norris McLaren 6.7 10.6% 34.6% 85.7%
5 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 6.2 8.0% 28.9% 84.2%
6 George Russell Mercedes 5.8 6.6% 24.8% 81.2%
7 Oscar Piastri McLaren 4.8 4.4% 19.0% 77.1%
8 Isack Hadjar Red Bull 2.7 1.7% 10.8% 67.7%
9 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team 1.9 1.2% 7.5% 60.9%
10 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 1.7 0.0% 0.0% 2.3%
11 Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team 1.5 0.1% 0.5% 16.8%
12 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 1.5 0.0% 0.1% 12.4%
13 Carlos Sainz Williams 1.5 0.0% 0.0% 5.4%
14 Alexander Albon Williams 1.3 0.0% 0.1% 8.7%
15 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team 1.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
16 Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team 1.1 0.0% 0.0% 2.4%
17 Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team 0.9 0.0% 0.4% 18.8%
18 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 0.7 0.0% 0.7% 22.7%
19 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 0.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
20 Liam Lawson RB F1 Team 0.4 0.6% 4.1% 48.1%
21 Nico Hülkenberg Audi 0.4 0.3% 2.9% 42.9%
22 Jack Doohan Alpine F1 Team 0.4 0.1% 0.8% 26.6%
23 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 0.1 0.2% 2.0% 35.5%
24 Yuki Tsunoda RB F1 Team 0.1 0.2% 1.5% 31.6%

Transfer Targets

FiveStat Model

Best picks by summed xFP across the next 1, 3, and 5 races. Use for short holds, medium holds, and season picks.

Rank Driver Team Total xFP Per Race Race Breakdown
1 Max Verstappen Red Bull 11.9 11.9 United States: 11.9
2 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 10.4 10.4 United States: 10.4
3 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 8.5 8.5 United States: 8.5
4 Lando Norris McLaren 6.7 6.7 United States: 6.7
5 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 6.2 6.2 United States: 6.2
6 George Russell Mercedes 5.8 5.8 United States: 5.8
7 Oscar Piastri McLaren 4.8 4.8 United States: 4.8
8 Isack Hadjar Red Bull 2.7 2.7 United States: 2.7
9 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team 1.9 1.9 United States: 1.9
10 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 1.7 1.7 United States: 1.7
11 Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team 1.5 1.5 United States: 1.5
12 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 1.5 1.5 United States: 1.5
13 Carlos Sainz Williams 1.5 1.5 United States: 1.5
14 Alexander Albon Williams 1.3 1.3 United States: 1.3
15 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team 1.3 1.3 United States: 1.3

Season xFP Projection

FiveStat Model

Projected total fantasy points across the remaining 6 races. Completed race actuals combined with model projections.

Rank Driver Team Actual FP (so far) Proj. Remaining FP Final XFP Champ Pts
1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 586.0 62.1 648.1 340
2 Max Verstappen Red Bull 347.0 71.1 418.1 221
3 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 370.0 37.0 407.0 229
4 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 351.0 50.7 401.7 215
5 George Russell Mercedes 351.0 34.8 385.8 238
6 Lando Norris McLaren 272.0 39.7 311.7 201
7 Oscar Piastri McLaren 172.0 29.0 201.0 138
8 Isack Hadjar Red Bull 137.0 15.6 152.6 97
9 Liam Lawson RB F1 Team 151.0 1.6 152.6 75
10 Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team 72.0 5.8 77.8 38
11 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team 60.0 11.1 71.1 41
12 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 65.0 4.2 69.2 7
13 Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team 45.0 9.4 54.4 27
14 Carlos Sainz Williams 28.0 9.8 37.8 7
15 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 26.0 9.7 35.7 23
16 Yuki Tsunoda RB F1 Team 7 0.6 7.6 1
17 Jack Doohan Alpine F1 Team 0 2.5 2.5 –
18 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi -16.0 0.4 -15.6 10
19 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin -46.0 10.9 -35.1 7
20 Nico Hülkenberg Audi -47.0 1.6 -45.4 13
21 Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team -53.0 7.4 -45.6 –
22 Alexander Albon Williams -86.0 8.7 -77.3 5
23 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team -130.0 7.6 -122.4 –
24 Lance Stroll Aston Martin -218.0 3.4 -214.6 –

How xFP is calculated

Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) uses FiveStat's race prediction probabilities to estimate each driver's likely fantasy score. Finish position points (25 for 1st down to 1 for 10th) are weighted by win/podium/points probabilities. A -20 DNF penalty is applied at 8% probability per driver. Fastest lap (+5) is distributed proportionally by win probability. Grid position vs expected finish position determines positions gained/lost bonuses.

Season projections use actual fantasy points from completed races (calculated from real results) combined with xFP model projections for remaining rounds. Transfer targets rank drivers by summed xFP over the next 1, 3, or 5 races.