Formula 1 · F1 Fantasy

F1 Fantasy Planner

Expected fantasy points, transfer targets and season projections - built on FiveStat's pace model.

Next Race xFP - Italian Grand Prix

FiveStat Model

Expected fantasy points for the next race. Based on win/podium/points probabilities, positions gained vs grid, and fastest lap probability.

Rank	Driver	Team	xFP	Win %	Podium %	Points %	xPos
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	10.7	23.0%	54.8%	90.1%	5.2
2	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	10.3	24.8%	56.5%	89.8%	5.1
3	George Russell	Mercedes	8.0	10.5%	35.0%	86.5%	6.3
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	7.9	12.5%	39.0%	87.1%	6.2
5	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	7.8	13.5%	42.0%	88.6%	5.9
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	6.4	7.3%	26.6%	82.8%	7.2
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	4.8	4.5%	18.6%	77.4%	8.1
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	2.9	1.8%	11.1%	69.2%	9.2
9	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	2.6	0.0%	0.1%	6.0%	17.2
10	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	2.3	0.0%	0.2%	12.0%	15.9
11	Alexander Albon	Williams	2.2	0.0%	0.1%	7.6%	16.7
12	Carlos Sainz	Williams	1.5	0.1%	0.5%	22.1%	14.3
13	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	1.5	0.0%	0.1%	12.7%	15.7
14	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	1.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	21.2
15	Jack Doohan	Alpine F1 Team	1.0	0.0%	0.7%	24.7%	14.0
16	Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	1.0	0.0%	0.4%	15.2%	15.4
17	Franco Colapinto	Alpine F1 Team	0.8	0.1%	1.1%	28.8%	13.5
18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	0.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	20.6
19	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	20.2
20	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	0.0	0.5%	3.6%	46.4%	11.7
21	Pierre Gasly	Alpine F1 Team	-0.1	0.5%	4.5%	51.1%	11.2
22	Liam Lawson	RB F1 Team	-0.1	0.2%	1.4%	30.4%	13.5
23	Yuki Tsunoda	Red Bull	-0.5	0.3%	2.1%	38.4%	12.5
24	Arvid Lindblad	RB F1 Team	-0.5	0.1%	1.5%	32.2%	13.1

Transfer Targets

FiveStat Model

Best picks by summed xFP across the next 1, 3, and 5 races. Use for short holds, medium holds, and season picks.

Rank	Driver	Team	Total xFP	Per Race	Race Breakdown
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	10.7	10.7	Italian: 10.7
2	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	10.3	10.3	Italian: 10.3
3	George Russell	Mercedes	8.0	8.0	Italian: 8.0
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	7.9	7.9	Italian: 7.9
5	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	7.8	7.8	Italian: 7.8
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	6.4	6.4	Italian: 6.4
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	4.8	4.8	Italian: 4.8
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	2.9	2.9	Italian: 2.9
9	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	2.6	2.6	Italian: 2.6
10	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	2.3	2.3	Italian: 2.3
11	Alexander Albon	Williams	2.2	2.2	Italian: 2.2
12	Carlos Sainz	Williams	1.5	1.5	Italian: 1.5
13	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	1.5	1.5	Italian: 1.5
14	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	1.2	1.2	Italian: 1.2
15	Jack Doohan	Alpine F1 Team	1.0	1.0	Italian: 1.0

Rank	Driver	Team	Total xFP	Per Race	Race Breakdown
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	32.0	10.7	Italian: 10.7 Spanish: 10.6 Azerbaijan: 10.7
2	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	31.8	10.6	Italian: 10.3 Spanish: 10.9 Azerbaijan: 10.6
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	24.1	8.0	Italian: 7.8 Spanish: 8.2 Azerbaijan: 8.1
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	23.5	7.8	Italian: 7.9 Spanish: 7.8 Azerbaijan: 7.8
5	George Russell	Mercedes	23.2	7.7	Italian: 8.0 Spanish: 7.5 Azerbaijan: 7.7
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	18.9	6.3	Italian: 6.4 Spanish: 6.2 Azerbaijan: 6.3
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	14.2	4.7	Italian: 4.8 Spanish: 4.7 Azerbaijan: 4.7
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	9.3	3.1	Italian: 2.9 Spanish: 3.3 Azerbaijan: 3.1
9	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	6.5	2.2	Italian: 2.6 Spanish: 1.8 Azerbaijan: 2.1
10	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	5.6	1.9	Italian: 2.3 Spanish: 1.5 Azerbaijan: 1.8
11	Alexander Albon	Williams	5.5	1.8	Italian: 2.2 Spanish: 1.5 Azerbaijan: 1.8
12	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	3.9	1.3	Italian: 1.2 Spanish: 1.4 Azerbaijan: 1.3
13	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	3.7	1.2	Italian: 1.5 Spanish: 1.0 Azerbaijan: 1.2
14	Carlos Sainz	Williams	3.6	1.2	Italian: 1.5 Spanish: 0.9 Azerbaijan: 1.2
15	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	2.7	0.9	Italian: 0.8 Spanish: 1.0 Azerbaijan: 0.9

Rank	Driver	Team	Total xFP	Per Race	Race Breakdown
1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	54.3	10.9	Italian: 10.3 Spanish: 10.9 Azerbaijan: 10.6 Bahrain: 10.9 Singapore: 11.6
2	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	53.3	10.7	Italian: 10.7 Spanish: 10.6 Azerbaijan: 10.7 Bahrain: 10.6 Singapore: 10.7
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	40.9	8.2	Italian: 7.8 Spanish: 8.2 Azerbaijan: 8.1 Bahrain: 8.2 Singapore: 8.6
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	39.1	7.8	Italian: 7.9 Spanish: 7.8 Azerbaijan: 7.8 Bahrain: 7.8 Singapore: 7.8
5	George Russell	Mercedes	37.7	7.5	Italian: 8.0 Spanish: 7.5 Azerbaijan: 7.7 Bahrain: 7.5 Singapore: 7.0
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	31.0	6.2	Italian: 6.4 Spanish: 6.2 Azerbaijan: 6.3 Bahrain: 6.2 Singapore: 5.9
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	23.5	4.7	Italian: 4.8 Spanish: 4.7 Azerbaijan: 4.7 Bahrain: 4.7 Singapore: 4.6
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	16.0	3.2	Italian: 2.9 Spanish: 3.3 Azerbaijan: 3.1 Bahrain: 3.3 Singapore: 3.4
9	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	9.4	1.9	Italian: 2.6 Spanish: 1.8 Azerbaijan: 2.1 Bahrain: 1.8 Singapore: 1.1
10	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	8.0	1.6	Italian: 2.3 Spanish: 1.5 Azerbaijan: 1.8 Bahrain: 1.5 Singapore: 0.9
11	Alexander Albon	Williams	7.9	1.6	Italian: 2.2 Spanish: 1.5 Azerbaijan: 1.8 Bahrain: 1.5 Singapore: 0.9
12	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	6.9	1.4	Italian: 1.2 Spanish: 1.4 Azerbaijan: 1.3 Bahrain: 1.4 Singapore: 1.6
13	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	5.2	1.0	Italian: 1.5 Spanish: 1.0 Azerbaijan: 1.2 Bahrain: 1.0 Singapore: 0.5
14	Carlos Sainz	Williams	4.9	1.0	Italian: 1.5 Spanish: 0.9 Azerbaijan: 1.2 Bahrain: 0.9 Singapore: 0.4
15	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	4.9	1.0	Italian: 0.8 Spanish: 1.0 Azerbaijan: 0.9 Bahrain: 1.0 Singapore: 1.2

Season xFP Projection

FiveStat Model

Projected total fantasy points across the remaining 11 races. Completed race actuals combined with model projections.

Rank	Driver	Team	Actual FP (so far)	Proj. Remaining FP	Final XFP	Champ Pts
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	349.0	117.1	466.1	219
2	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	275.0	89.8	364.8	169
3	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	217.0	86.0	303.0	138
4	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	176.0	119.0	295.0	109
5	George Russell	Mercedes	199.0	83.2	282.2	160
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	140.0	68.4	208.4	128
7	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	120.0	35.2	155.2	68
8	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	84.0	51.7	135.7	92
9	Liam Lawson	RB F1 Team	114.0	1.1	115.1	43
10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine F1 Team	81.0	7.8	88.8	42
11	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	62.0	11.7	73.7	3
12	Franco Colapinto	Alpine F1 Team	64.0	7.9	71.9	19
13	Arvid Lindblad	RB F1 Team	45.0	-1.2	43.8	23
14	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	26.0	17.8	43.8	18
15	Carlos Sainz	Williams	27.0	11.0	38.0	6
16	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	24.0	6.4	30.4	10
17	Jack Doohan	Alpine F1 Team	0	7.5	7.5	–
18	Yuki Tsunoda	Red Bull	0	1.6	1.6	–
19	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	-40.0	20.9	-19.1	–
20	Alexander Albon	Williams	-43.0	17.6	-25.4	5
21	Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	-43.0	8.0	-35.0	2
22	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	-44.0	4.1	-39.9	1
23	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	-81.0	15.0	-66.0	–
24	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	-116.0	10.7	-105.3	–

How xFP is calculated

Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) uses FiveStat's race prediction probabilities to estimate each driver's likely fantasy score. Finish position points (25 for 1st down to 1 for 10th) are weighted by win/podium/points probabilities. A -20 DNF penalty is applied at 8% probability per driver. Fastest lap (+5) is distributed proportionally by win probability. Grid position vs expected finish position determines positions gained/lost bonuses.

Season projections use actual fantasy points from completed races (calculated from real results) combined with xFP model projections for remaining rounds. Transfer targets rank drivers by summed xFP over the next 1, 3, or 5 races.