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F1 Fantasy Planner

Expected fantasy points, transfer targets and season projections - built on FiveStat's pace model.

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Next Race xFP - Monaco Grand Prix

FiveStat Model

Expected fantasy points for the next race. Based on win/podium/points probabilities, positions gained vs grid, and fastest lap probability.

Rank Driver Team xFP Win % Podium % Points % xPos
1 George Russell Mercedes 12.0 29.2% 62.0% 90.5% 4.8
2 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 10.4 21.6% 54.4% 90.6% 5.2
3 Max Verstappen Red Bull 9.2 15.7% 47.0% 90.1% 5.5
4 Lando Norris McLaren 7.8 11.8% 38.6% 88.3% 6.2
5 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 6.7 8.2% 29.3% 86.4% 6.6
6 Oscar Piastri McLaren 5.7 5.9% 23.5% 83.1% 7.3
7 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 4.2 3.3% 15.8% 78.1% 8.2
8 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 3.5 1.8% 11.0% 72.9% 8.9
9 Isack Hadjar Red Bull 2.4 1.1% 7.0% 64.3% 9.9
10 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team 1.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 20.5
11 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team 1.7 0.6% 4.6% 56.3% 10.7
12 Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team 1.5 0.3% 2.8% 49.1% 11.3
13 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 1.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 20.0
14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 0.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 19.5
15 Carlos Sainz Williams 0.7 0.1% 1.6% 38.3% 12.2
16 Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team 0.6 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 18.9
17 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 0.4 0.1% 1.2% 31.7% 13.1
18 Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team 0.4 0.0% 0.5% 25.5% 13.6
19 Yuki Tsunoda Red Bull 0.4 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 17.3
20 Nico Hülkenberg Audi 0.4 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 18.1
21 Jack Doohan Alpine F1 Team 0.2 0.0% 0.3% 18.6% 14.4
22 Alexander Albon Williams 0.2 0.0% 0.2% 9.3% 15.8
23 Liam Lawson RB F1 Team 0.2 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 16.6
24 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 0.0 0.0% 0.2% 12.7% 15.2

Transfer Targets

FiveStat Model

Best picks by summed xFP across the next 1, 3, and 5 races. Use for short holds, medium holds, and season picks.

Rank Driver Team Total xFP Per Race Race Breakdown
1 George Russell Mercedes 12.0 12.0 Monaco: 12.0
2 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 10.4 10.4 Monaco: 10.4
3 Max Verstappen Red Bull 9.2 9.2 Monaco: 9.2
4 Lando Norris McLaren 7.8 7.8 Monaco: 7.8
5 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 6.7 6.7 Monaco: 6.7
6 Oscar Piastri McLaren 5.7 5.7 Monaco: 5.7
7 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 4.2 4.2 Monaco: 4.2
8 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 3.5 3.5 Monaco: 3.5
9 Isack Hadjar Red Bull 2.4 2.4 Monaco: 2.4
10 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team 1.9 1.9 Monaco: 1.9
11 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team 1.7 1.7 Monaco: 1.7
12 Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team 1.5 1.5 Monaco: 1.5
13 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 1.4 1.4 Monaco: 1.4
14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 0.9 0.9 Monaco: 0.9
15 Carlos Sainz Williams 0.7 0.7 Monaco: 0.7

Season xFP Projection

FiveStat Model

Projected total fantasy points across the remaining 17 races. Completed race actuals combined with model projections.

Rank Driver Team Actual FP (so far) Proj. Remaining FP Final XFP Champ Pts
1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 200.0 130.7 330.7 131
2 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 135.0 167.8 302.8 75
3 George Russell Mercedes 109.0 176.2 285.2 88
4 Max Verstappen Red Bull 102.0 164.5 266.5 43
5 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 121.0 73.0 194.0 72
6 Lando Norris McLaren 31.0 149.1 180.1 58
7 Oscar Piastri McLaren 27.0 112.7 139.7 48
8 Liam Lawson RB F1 Team 68.0 20.3 88.3 16
9 Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team 55.0 10.6 65.6 20
10 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 48.0 7.2 55.2 18
11 Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team 45.0 6.6 51.6 15
12 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 2.0 46.4 48.4 2
13 Carlos Sainz Williams 49.0 -2.3 46.7 6
14 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 46.0 -0.7 45.3 1
15 Isack Hadjar Red Bull 19.0 21.5 40.5 14
16 Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team 10.0 17.2 27.2 –
17 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team -2.0 24.4 22.4 –
18 Yuki Tsunoda Red Bull 0 21.6 21.6 –
19 Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team 7.0 9.2 16.2 5
20 Jack Doohan Alpine F1 Team 0 11.1 11.1 –
21 Nico Hülkenberg Audi -8.0 16.5 8.5 –
22 Alexander Albon Williams -17.0 16.6 -0.4 1
23 Lance Stroll Aston Martin -46.0 22.3 -23.7 –
24 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin -47.0 10.9 -36.1 –

How xFP is calculated

Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) uses FiveStat's race prediction probabilities to estimate each driver's likely fantasy score. Finish position points (25 for 1st down to 1 for 10th) are weighted by win/podium/points probabilities. A -20 DNF penalty is applied at 8% probability per driver. Fastest lap (+5) is distributed proportionally by win probability. Grid position vs expected finish position determines positions gained/lost bonuses.

Season projections use actual fantasy points from completed races (calculated from real results) combined with xFP model projections for remaining rounds. Transfer targets rank drivers by summed xFP over the next 1, 3, or 5 races.