Bet Value Checker
Gameweek 32 · FiveStat model vs bookie probabilities
What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV measures the % advantage our model has against bookmaker prices. We compare our model's true probability against the bookie's implied probability from their odds.
Positive Value implies the bookie is underestimating the probability, highlighting a potential value bet.
Strong value >+5%
Marginal +1–5%
No value ≤0%
Win probability
| Fixture | Market | Our model | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers | West Ham win | 33.6% | — | — |
| Draw | 26.1% | — | — | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers win | 40.3% | — | — | |
| Arsenal vs Bournemouth | Arsenal win | 55.6% | — | — |
| Draw | 21.6% | — | — | |
| Bournemouth win | 22.7% | — | — | |
| Brentford vs Everton | Brentford win | 51.4% | — | — |
| Draw | 23.5% | — | — | |
| Everton win | 25.1% | — | — | |
| Burnley vs Brighton | Burnley win | 18.2% | — | — |
| Draw | 19.7% | — | — | |
| Brighton win | 62.1% | — | — | |
| Liverpool vs Fulham | Liverpool win | 62.5% | — | — |
| Draw | 18.5% | — | — | |
| Fulham win | 19.0% | — | — | |
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United | Crystal Palace win | 34.1% | — | — |
| Draw | 24.8% | — | — | |
| Newcastle United win | 41.1% | — | — | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest win | 34.4% | — | — |
| Draw | 26.0% | — | — | |
| Aston Villa win | 39.6% | — | — | |
| Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur | Sunderland win | 19.1% | — | — |
| Draw | 23.8% | — | — | |
| Tottenham Hotspur win | 57.1% | — | — | |
| Chelsea vs Manchester City | Chelsea win | 36.7% | — | — |
| Draw | 22.7% | — | — | |
| Manchester City win | 40.6% | — | — | |
| Manchester United vs Leeds | Manchester United win | 47.0% | — | — |
| Draw | 24.5% | — | — | |
| Leeds win | 28.4% | — | — |
Clean sheet probability
| Fixture | Team | Our model | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers | West Ham | 21.2% | — | — |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 24.6% | — | — | |
| Arsenal vs Bournemouth | Arsenal | 25.7% | — | — |
| Bournemouth | 11.4% | — | — | |
| Brentford vs Everton | Brentford | 26.9% | — | — |
| Everton | 14.5% | — | — | |
| Burnley vs Brighton | Burnley | 9.0% | — | — |
| Brighton | 27.9% | — | — | |
| Liverpool vs Fulham | Liverpool | 23.5% | — | — |
| Fulham | 7.2% | — | — | |
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | 18.6% | — | — |
| Newcastle United | 21.8% | — | — | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | 21.4% | — | — |
| Aston Villa | 23.9% | — | — | |
| Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur | Sunderland | 15.3% | — | — |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 36.3% | — | — | |
| Chelsea vs Manchester City | Chelsea | 14.7% | — | — |
| Manchester City | 16.2% | — | — | |
| Manchester United vs Leeds | Manchester United | 25.6% | — | — |
| Leeds | 16.7% | — | — |