Bet Value Checker
FiveStat model probabilities vs bookie-implied odds - find where the market undervalues an outcome (in our opinion...)
What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is the edge our model's probability has over what the bookmaker is implying with their odds. A positive EV means our model thinks an outcome is more likely than the bookie is pricing it - suggesting the market may be undervaluing that result. A negative EV means the bookie is pricing the outcome higher than our model estimates.
How is bookie probability calculated?
Bookmakers build a margin (overround) into their odds so that the implied probabilities across all outcomes add up to more than 100%. We strip that margin out to get a fair, margin-adjusted implied probability - giving a like-for-like comparison against our model.
How to read the table
Model % - our model's probability for that outcome.
Bookie % - the margin-adjusted implied probability from the bookmaker's odds.
EV - the difference. Positive = potential value, negative = bookie prices it higher than we do.
Value thresholds
Strong value (>+10%) - a meaningful gap between model and market, worth paying attention to.
Marginal (+1-10%) - a slight edge, but within the range of normal model uncertainty.
No value (≤0%) - the bookie's price is fair or short relative to our model.
Important
EV is a model-driven signal, not a guarantee of profit. Bookmaker odds move constantly as fixtures approach, so treat this as a guide to where the model disagrees with the market - not as betting advice. Gamble responsibly.
This tool is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this page constitutes betting advice. Gamble responsibly!
| Fixture | Market | Our model | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Coventry City | Arsenal win | 69.0% | 80.7% | -11.7% |
| Draw | 18.1% | 13.2% | +4.9% | |
| Coventry City win | 12.8% | 6.1% | +6.7% | |
| Hull City vs Manchester United | Hull City win | 24.8% | 13.4% | +11.4% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 21.2% | +1.4% | |
| Manchester United win | 52.6% | 65.4% | -12.8% | |
| Everton vs Crystal Palace | Everton win | 42.0% | 44.2% | -2.2% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 27.5% | -1.4% | |
| Crystal Palace win | 31.9% | 28.3% | +3.6% | |
| Ipswich Town vs Sunderland | Ipswich Town win | 35.4% | — | - |
| Draw | 27.4% | — | - | |
| Sunderland win | 37.2% | — | - | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Leeds | Nottingham Forest win | 40.2% | 42.6% | -2.4% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 27.7% | -3.0% | |
| Leeds win | 35.1% | 29.8% | +5.3% | |
| Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur | Brentford win | 45.7% | 39.9% | +5.8% |
| Draw | 21.8% | 26.4% | -4.6% | |
| Tottenham Hotspur win | 32.4% | 33.7% | -1.3% | |
| Brighton vs Aston Villa | Brighton win | 40.4% | 41.3% | -0.9% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.0% | -1.0% | |
| Aston Villa win | 34.7% | 32.8% | +1.9% | |
| Manchester City vs Bournemouth | Manchester City win | 68.4% | 65.5% | +2.9% |
| Draw | 17.0% | 19.1% | -2.1% | |
| Bournemouth win | 14.6% | 15.4% | -0.8% | |
| Newcastle vs Liverpool | Newcastle win | 37.7% | 31.1% | +6.6% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 24.9% | -2.5% | |
| Liverpool win | 39.9% | 44.1% | -4.2% | |
| Fulham vs Chelsea | Fulham win | 33.1% | 30.6% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 25.8% | -3.2% | |
| Chelsea win | 44.3% | 43.6% | +0.7% |
| Fixture | Market | Our model | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Coventry City | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 60.5% | -4.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 39.5% | +4.9% | |
| Hull City vs Manchester United | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 54.4% | -1.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 45.6% | +1.3% | |
| Everton vs Crystal Palace | Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 50.0% | -4.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 50.0% | +4.6% | |
| Ipswich Town vs Sunderland | Over 2.5 | 42.4% | — | - |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | — | - | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Leeds | Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 49.9% | 0.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 50.1% | 0.0% | |
| Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 57.4% | +1.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | 42.6% | -1.6% | |
| Brighton vs Aston Villa | Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 58.7% | -9.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 41.3% | +9.7% | |
| Manchester City vs Bournemouth | Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 68.1% | -5.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | 31.9% | +5.8% | |
| Newcastle vs Liverpool | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 62.5% | -4.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | 37.5% | +4.6% | |
| Fulham vs Chelsea | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 58.4% | -2.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | 41.6% | +2.1% |