Bet Value Checker
FiveStat model probabilities vs bookie-implied odds - find where the market undervalues an outcome (in our opinion...)
What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is the edge our model's probability has over what the bookmaker is implying with their odds. A positive EV means our model thinks an outcome is more likely than the bookie is pricing it - suggesting the market may be undervaluing that result. A negative EV means the bookie is pricing the outcome higher than our model estimates.
How is bookie probability calculated?
Bookmakers build a margin (overround) into their odds so that the implied probabilities across all outcomes add up to more than 100%. We strip that margin out to get a fair, margin-adjusted implied probability - giving a like-for-like comparison against our model.
How to read the table
Model % - our model's probability for that outcome.
Bookie % - the margin-adjusted implied probability from the bookmaker's odds.
EV - the difference. Positive = potential value, negative = bookie prices it higher than we do.
Value thresholds
Strong value (>+10%) - a meaningful gap between model and market, worth paying attention to.
Marginal (+1-10%) - a slight edge, but within the range of normal model uncertainty.
No value (≤0%) - the bookie's price is fair or short relative to our model.
Important
EV is a model-driven signal, not a guarantee of profit. Bookmaker odds move constantly as fixtures approach, so treat this as a guide to where the model disagrees with the market - not as betting advice. Gamble responsibly.
This tool is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this page constitutes betting advice. Gamble responsibly!
| Fixture | Market | Our model | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool vs Chelsea | Liverpool win | 47.0% | 51.0% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 23.8% | -1.4% | |
| Chelsea win | 30.7% | 25.2% | +5.5% | |
| Brighton vs Wolves | Brighton win | 61.0% | 73.5% | -12.5% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 16.4% | +7.6% | |
| Wolves win | 14.9% | 10.1% | +4.8% | |
| Fulham vs Bournemouth | Fulham win | 36.7% | 35.1% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.8% | -0.6% | |
| Bournemouth win | 38.1% | 39.0% | -0.9% | |
| Sunderland vs Manchester United | Sunderland win | 26.7% | 24.4% | +2.3% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.6% | +0.5% | |
| Manchester United win | 47.2% | 50.0% | -2.8% | |
| Manchester City vs Brentford | Manchester City win | 66.7% | 70.7% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 18.9% | 17.3% | +1.6% | |
| Brentford win | 14.4% | 12.1% | +2.3% | |
| Burnley vs Aston Villa | Burnley win | 13.7% | 17.7% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 22.9% | +0.8% | |
| Aston Villa win | 62.6% | 59.4% | +3.2% | |
| Crystal Palace vs Everton | Crystal Palace win | 28.1% | 34.3% | -6.2% |
| Draw | 31.1% | 29.1% | +2.0% | |
| Everton win | 40.8% | 36.5% | +4.3% | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle | Nottingham Forest win | 28.6% | 36.5% | -7.9% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 27.0% | +2.0% | |
| Newcastle win | 42.4% | 36.5% | +5.9% | |
| West Ham vs Arsenal | West Ham win | 14.9% | 18.3% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 19.7% | 23.0% | -3.3% | |
| Arsenal win | 65.3% | 58.7% | +6.6% | |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds | Tottenham Hotspur win | 33.0% | 53.1% | -20.1% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 23.9% | +2.0% | |
| Leeds win | 41.1% | 23.0% | +18.1% | |
| Manchester City vs Crystal Palace | Manchester City win | 72.4% | 74.5% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 17.8% | 16.3% | +1.5% | |
| Crystal Palace win | 9.7% | 9.2% | +0.5% |
| Fixture | Market | Our model | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool vs Chelsea | Over 2.5 | 71.2% | 64.5% | +6.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.8% | 35.5% | -6.7% | |
| Brighton vs Wolves | Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 61.6% | -13.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 38.4% | +13.5% | |
| Fulham vs Bournemouth | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 61.3% | -1.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.8% | 38.8% | +1.0% | |
| Sunderland vs Manchester United | Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 54.7% | -1.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 45.3% | +1.4% | |
| Manchester City vs Brentford | Over 2.5 | 67.3% | 67.4% | -0.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.7% | 32.6% | +0.1% | |
| Burnley vs Aston Villa | Over 2.5 | 47.0% | 55.4% | -8.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 44.6% | +8.4% | |
| Crystal Palace vs Everton | Over 2.5 | 37.2% | 46.4% | -9.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.8% | 53.6% | +9.2% | |
| Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle | Over 2.5 | 44.0% | 55.2% | -11.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 44.8% | +11.2% | |
| West Ham vs Arsenal | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 57.0% | +7.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.3% | 43.0% | -7.7% | |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 56.2% | +0.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | 43.8% | -0.8% | |
| Manchester City vs Crystal Palace | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 64.5% | -4.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | 35.5% | +4.4% |