Bet Value Checker
FiveStat model probabilities vs bookie-implied odds - find where the market undervalues an outcome (in our opinion...)
What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is the edge our model's probability has over what the bookmaker is implying with their odds. A positive EV means our model thinks an outcome is more likely than the bookie is pricing it - suggesting the market may be undervaluing that result. A negative EV means the bookie is pricing the outcome higher than our model estimates.
How is bookie probability calculated?
Bookmakers build a margin (overround) into their odds so that the implied probabilities across all outcomes add up to more than 100%. We strip that margin out to get a fair, margin-adjusted implied probability - giving a like-for-like comparison against our model.
How to read the table
Model % - our model's probability for that outcome.
Bookie % - the margin-adjusted implied probability from the bookmaker's odds.
EV - the difference. Positive = potential value, negative = bookie prices it higher than we do.
Value thresholds
Strong value (>+10%) - a meaningful gap between model and market, worth paying attention to.
Marginal (+1-10%) - a slight edge, but within the range of normal model uncertainty.
No value (≤0%) - the bookie's price is fair or short relative to our model.
Important
EV is a model-driven signal, not a guarantee of profit. Bookmaker odds move constantly as fixtures approach, so treat this as a guide to where the model disagrees with the market - not as betting advice. Gamble responsibly.
This tool is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this page constitutes betting advice. Gamble responsibly!
| Fixture | Market | Our model | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Manchester United | Chelsea win | 41.0% | 51.5% | -10.5% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 24.3% | -1.9% | |
| Manchester United win | 36.6% | 24.2% | +12.4% | |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds | Bournemouth win | 35.3% | 45.1% | -9.8% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.4% | -1.9% | |
| Leeds win | 39.2% | 27.4% | +11.8% | |
| Brentford vs Nottingham Forest | Brentford win | 49.5% | 47.1% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.7% | -1.1% | |
| Nottingham Forest win | 25.9% | 27.2% | -1.3% | |
| Coventry City vs Sunderland | Coventry City win | 35.5% | 31.4% | +4.1% |
| Draw | 27.2% | 28.0% | -0.8% | |
| Sunderland win | 37.4% | 40.6% | -3.2% | |
| Hull City vs Ipswich Town | Hull City win | 36.6% | — | - |
| Draw | 24.3% | — | - | |
| Ipswich Town win | 39.0% | — | - | |
| Manchester City vs Brighton | Manchester City win | 62.9% | 57.4% | +5.5% |
| Draw | 20.9% | 21.8% | -0.9% | |
| Brighton win | 16.2% | 20.8% | -4.6% | |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace | Tottenham Hotspur win | 52.4% | 61.6% | -9.2% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 21.4% | +2.5% | |
| Crystal Palace win | 23.7% | 17.0% | +6.7% | |
| Aston Villa vs Fulham | Aston Villa win | 49.4% | 48.4% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.6% | -0.8% | |
| Fulham win | 25.7% | 26.0% | -0.3% | |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | Liverpool win | 27.7% | 31.9% | -4.2% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 27.6% | -2.0% | |
| Arsenal win | 46.7% | 40.5% | +6.2% | |
| Newcastle vs Everton | Newcastle win | 47.1% | 41.7% | +5.4% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.4% | -1.4% | |
| Everton win | 27.9% | 31.9% | -4.0% |
| Fixture | Market | Our model | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Manchester United | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 59.8% | +8.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | 40.2% | -8.8% | |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 50.9% | +3.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | 49.1% | -3.2% | |
| Brentford vs Nottingham Forest | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 55.3% | -1.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | 44.7% | +1.5% | |
| Coventry City vs Sunderland | Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 48.9% | -1.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 51.1% | +1.7% | |
| Hull City vs Ipswich Town | Over 2.5 | 59.3% | — | - |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | — | - | |
| Manchester City vs Brighton | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 66.7% | -9.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | 33.3% | +9.4% | |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 60.4% | -5.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | 39.6% | +5.7% | |
| Aston Villa vs Fulham | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 55.9% | -3.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | 44.1% | +3.2% | |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 51.7% | -0.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | 48.3% | +0.6% | |
| Newcastle vs Everton | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 56.2% | -2.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | 43.8% | +2.8% |