Bet Value Checker

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What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is the edge our model's probability has over what the bookmaker is implying with their odds. A positive EV means our model thinks an outcome is more likely than the bookie is pricing it - suggesting the market may be undervaluing that result. A negative EV means the bookie is pricing the outcome higher than our model estimates.

How is bookie probability calculated?
Bookmakers build a margin (overround) into their odds so that the implied probabilities across all outcomes add up to more than 100%. We strip that margin out to get a fair, margin-adjusted implied probability - giving a like-for-like comparison against our model.

How to read the table
Model % - our model's probability for that outcome.
Bookie % - the margin-adjusted implied probability from the bookmaker's odds.
EV - the difference. Positive = potential value, negative = bookie prices it higher than we do.

Value thresholds
Strong value (>+10%) - a meaningful gap between model and market, worth paying attention to.
Marginal (+1-10%) - a slight edge, but within the range of normal model uncertainty.
No value (≤0%) - the bookie's price is fair or short relative to our model.

Important
EV is a model-driven signal, not a guarantee of profit. Bookmaker odds move constantly as fixtures approach, so treat this as a guide to where the model disagrees with the market - not as betting advice. Gamble responsibly.