Welcome to FiveStat
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Data-Driven Sports Analytics
Probabilities and Analytics for Premier League football and Formula 1 - powered by statistical models, not opinion.
Our correct score heatmaps display the probability of every scoreline for each upcoming fixture. The darker the cell, the more likely that scoreline, giving you an instant read on how our model expects a match to play out.
Our model breaks down every fixture into three key metrics: who's most likely to win, whether the game will go over or under 2.5 goals, and the probability of each Team keeping a clean sheet.
Our xG table gives insight to how each team is performing, beyond just points. We use data from our match prediction model to run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures to show the probability of every team finishing in each position.
Win probabilities, podium chances and points projections for every driver ahead of each race weekend. Built using qualifying pace, historical circuit data and team performance trends.
Live driver and constructor standings updated after every race, with simulated championship probability showing each driver's realistic title chances for the rest of the season.
What do these results mean?
Are these numbers actually good?
Yes - and they're harder to achieve than they look. Football is one of the most unpredictable sports in the world. A coin flip gives you 50% accuracy; a model that always picks the home team gets around 45%. Consistently beating those baselines with a statistical model is genuinely difficult.
Match Result accuracy (~52%)
This measures how often the model correctly predicted the match result across all three outcomes - home win, draw or away win. Predicting the right outcome from three equal possibilities by chance gives you 33%; a naive model that always picks the most common result in football (home win) lands around 45%. Consistently outperforming those baselines across a full season reflects a positive predictive signal.
Moneyline accuracy (~68%)
This measures how often the model correctly identifies the winner in matches that have a winner (i.e. excluding draws). Professional betting models and bookmakers typically sit in the 65–70% range for this metric. Reaching 68%+ on a full season of Premier League fixtures is a strong result.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy (~57%)
The over/under 2.5 goals market is one of the most efficient in football betting - bookmakers price it very tightly. A model hitting 57%+ on this market over a full season is performing above the level needed to find consistent value against the market.
How was it measured?
These figures come from a walk-forward backtest on the full 2024/25 Premier League season (380 matches). Walk-forward means the model only used data available at the time of each prediction - no future data was used. This mirrors exactly how it works in production. Read the full methodology →
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