Round 10 · 2026 Season
Belgian Grand Prix
Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps · Belgium · 2026-07-19
Qualifying has not yet taken place. Grid positions are estimated from pace rankings. Predictions will update automatically once qualifying results are available.
Race Predictions
FiveStat Model1
Max Verstappen
Red Bull
25.4%
win probability
Podium 57.3%
Points 89.9%
2
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
22.9%
win probability
Podium 55.0%
Points 90.1%
3
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari
13.9%
win probability
Podium 42.6%
Points 88.7%
| Driver | Team | Grid | DPR | CPI | Win % | Podium % | Points % | xPos | xFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | P1 | -0.972% | -0.966% | 89.9% | 5.1 | 10.5 | ||
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | P2 | -0.231% | -1.688% | 90.1% | 5.2 | 10.7 | ||
| Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | P3 | -0.020% | -1.533% | 88.7% | 5.9 | 7.9 | ||
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | P4 | +0.025% | -1.533% | 87.4% | 6.2 | 7.9 | ||
| George Russell | Mercedes | P5 | +0.249% | -1.688% | 86.6% | 6.4 | 7.7 | ||
| Lando Norris | McLaren | P6 | -0.124% | -1.041% | 82.9% | 7.2 | 6.3 | ||
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | P7 | +0.125% | -1.041% | 77.5% | 8.1 | 4.8 | ||
| Isack Hadjar | Red Bull | P8 | +0.446% | -0.966% | 70.0% | 9.1 | 3.1 | ||
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine F1 Team | P9 | -0.255% | +0.252% | 53.5% | 11.0 | 0.3 | ||
| Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | P10 | -0.387% | +0.497% | 47.7% | 11.5 | 0.3 | ||
| Yuki Tsunoda | Red Bull | P11 | +1.324% | -0.966% | 40.2% | 12.3 | -0.1 | ||
| Liam Lawson | RB F1 Team | P13 | +0.143% | +0.347% | 30.7% | 13.5 | – | ||
| Arvid Lindblad | RB F1 Team | P12 | +0.115% | +0.347% | 33.4% | 13.0 | -0.4 | ||
| Franco Colapinto | Alpine F1 Team | P14 | +0.260% | +0.252% | 28.6% | 13.5 | 0.8 | ||
| Jack Doohan | Alpine F1 Team | P15 | +0.353% | +0.252% | 24.0% | 14.1 | 0.8 | ||
| Carlos Sainz | Williams | P16 | -0.292% | +0.925% | 20.4% | 14.5 | 1.2 | ||
| Nico Hülkenberg | Audi | P17 | +0.471% | +0.497% | 14.2% | 15.4 | 0.9 | ||
| Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | P18 | +0.000% | +0.995% | 11.6% | 15.8 | 1.3 | ||
| Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | P19 | +0.006% | +0.995% | 10.3% | 16.1 | 1.9 | ||
| Alexander Albon | Williams | P20 | +0.299% | +0.925% | 6.7% | 16.9 | 1.9 | ||
| Sergio Pérez | Cadillac F1 Team | P21 | -1.065% | +2.313% | 4.8% | 17.5 | 2.2 | ||
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | P22 | -0.107% | +2.799% | 0.4% | 20.1 | 0.3 | ||
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | P23 | +0.109% | +2.799% | 0.3% | 20.5 | 0.9 | ||
| Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac F1 Team | P24 | +1.079% | +2.313% | 0.1% | 21.1 | 1.3 |
How this works
Each driver's pace score combines their Constructor Pace Index (car speed vs field) and Driver Pace Rating (speed vs teammate). This is blended with their qualifying grid position using a circuit-specific overtaking index - circuits like Monaco weight grid position heavily; circuits like Monza weight pure pace. 10,000 race simulations are run, each drawing from a normal distribution of race randomness with an 8% DNF probability per driver. Win, podium and points probabilities are tallied across all simulations.
When qualifying has not yet taken place, grid positions are estimated from pace rankings.