Round 6 · 2026 Season
Monaco Grand Prix
Circuit de Monaco · Monaco · 2026-06-07
Qualifying has not yet taken place. Grid positions are estimated from pace rankings. Predictions will update automatically once qualifying results are available.
Race Predictions
FiveStat Model1
George Russell
Mercedes
29.2%
win probability
Podium 62.0%
Points 90.5%
2
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
21.6%
win probability
Podium 54.4%
Points 90.6%
3
Max Verstappen
Red Bull
15.7%
win probability
Podium 47.0%
Points 90.1%
| Driver | Team | Grid | DPR | CPI | Win % | Podium % | Points % | xPos | xFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | Mercedes | P1 | -0.150% | -1.673% | 90.5% | 4.8 | 12.0 | ||
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | P2 | -0.437% | -1.341% | 90.6% | 5.2 | 10.4 | ||
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | P3 | -1.322% | -0.436% | 90.1% | 5.5 | 9.2 | ||
| Lando Norris | McLaren | P4 | -0.185% | -1.486% | 88.3% | 6.2 | 7.8 | ||
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | P5 | +0.183% | -1.673% | 86.4% | 6.6 | 6.7 | ||
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | P6 | +0.188% | -1.486% | 83.1% | 7.3 | 5.7 | ||
| Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | P7 | +0.442% | -1.341% | 78.1% | 8.2 | 4.2 | ||
| Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | P8 | -0.769% | +0.253% | 72.9% | 8.9 | 3.5 | ||
| Isack Hadjar | Red Bull | P9 | +0.227% | -0.436% | 64.3% | 9.9 | 2.4 | ||
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine F1 Team | P10 | -0.093% | +0.079% | 56.3% | 10.7 | 1.7 | ||
| Franco Colapinto | Alpine F1 Team | P11 | +0.095% | +0.079% | 49.1% | 11.3 | 1.5 | ||
| Carlos Sainz | Williams | P12 | -0.174% | +0.499% | 38.3% | 12.2 | 0.7 | ||
| Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | P13 | -0.120% | +0.498% | 31.7% | 13.1 | 0.4 | ||
| Arvid Lindblad | RB F1 Team | P14 | +0.106% | +0.288% | 25.5% | 13.6 | 0.4 | ||
| Jack Doohan | Alpine F1 Team | P15 | +0.353% | +0.079% | 18.6% | 14.4 | 0.2 | ||
| Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | P16 | +0.125% | +0.498% | 12.7% | 15.2 | – | ||
| Alexander Albon | Williams | P17 | +0.176% | +0.499% | 9.3% | 15.8 | 0.2 | ||
| Liam Lawson | RB F1 Team | P18 | +0.431% | +0.288% | 6.0% | 16.6 | 0.2 | ||
| Yuki Tsunoda | Red Bull | P19 | +1.324% | -0.436% | 4.3% | 17.3 | 0.4 | ||
| Nico Hülkenberg | Audi | P20 | +0.980% | +0.253% | 1.9% | 18.1 | 0.4 | ||
| Sergio Pérez | Cadillac F1 Team | P21 | -0.731% | +2.123% | 1.0% | 18.9 | 0.6 | ||
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | P22 | -0.065% | +2.166% | 0.6% | 19.5 | 0.9 | ||
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | P23 | +0.068% | +2.166% | 0.4% | 20.0 | 1.4 | ||
| Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac F1 Team | P24 | +0.740% | +2.123% | 0.2% | 20.5 | 1.9 |
How this works
Each driver's pace score combines their Constructor Pace Index (car speed vs field) and Driver Pace Rating (speed vs teammate). This is blended with their qualifying grid position using a circuit-specific overtaking index - circuits like Monaco weight grid position heavily; circuits like Monza weight pure pace. 10,000 race simulations are run, each drawing from a normal distribution of race randomness with an 8% DNF probability per driver. Win, podium and points probabilities are tallied across all simulations.
When qualifying has not yet taken place, grid positions are estimated from pace rankings.