All-Ireland SFC · 2026

GAA Football Predictions

ELO-based match probabilities and 5,000-simulation Monte Carlo championship model for the 2026 All-Ireland Senior Football Championship.

Round 2 Predictions

Match probabilities for this weekend's fixtures. 2A = winners' stream, 2B = second chance stream.

Stream 2A — Winners
2026-06-13 · 2A
Donegal 2037 vs 1607 Cork
DON 80.3%
Draw 13.6%
COR 6.1%
2026-06-14 · 2A
Louth 1583 vs 1936 Armagh
LOU 22.0%
Draw 16.5%
ARM 61.5%
2026-06-14 · 2A
Galway 1827 vs 1407 Westmeath
GAL 80.0%
Draw 13.6%
WES 6.4%
2026-06-14 · 2A
Tyrone 1697 vs 1848 Mayo
TYR 38.2%
Draw 19.6%
MAY 42.1%
Stream 2B — Second Chance
2026-06-13 · 2B
Monaghan 1519 vs 1654 Roscommon
MON 39.6%
Draw 19.9%
ROS 40.5%
2026-06-13 · 2B
Kildare 1238 vs 1973 Kerry
KIL 5.0%
Draw 13.4%
KER 81.6%
2026-06-13 · 2B
Derry 1583 vs 1609 Meath
DER 50.5%
Draw 18.2%
MEA 31.3%
2026-06-14 · 2B
Cavan 1283 vs 1618 Dublin
CAV 23.3%
Draw 16.7%
DUB 60.0%

Winner Probability

From 5,000 simulations of the remaining championship.

1 Donegal
31.4%
2 Kerry
19.0%
3 Galway
14.6%
4 Armagh
12.1%
5 Mayo
10.4%
6 Tyrone
4.2%
7 Dublin
2.2%
8 Derry
1.4%
9 Roscommon
1.3%
10 Meath
1.2%
11 Louth
0.7%
12 Cork
0.7%
13 Monaghan
0.4%
14 Westmeath
0.2%
15 Cavan
0.1%