Round 18 · 2026 Season

United States Grand Prix

Circuit of the Americas · USA · 2026-10-25

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Mode Pre-Qualifying (pace estimate)
Overtaking Index 0.55 (55% pace / 45% grid)
Qualifying has not yet taken place. Grid positions are estimated from pace rankings. Predictions will update automatically once qualifying results are available.

Race Predictions

FiveStat Model
1
Max Verstappen
Red Bull
29.5%
win probability
Podium 61.7% Points 90.2%
2
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
21.8%
win probability
Podium 54.1% Points 89.9%
3
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
14.6%
win probability
Podium 45.4% Points 88.8%
Driver Team Grid DPR CPI Win % Podium % Points % xFP
Max Verstappen Red Bull P1 -0.899% -1.053%
29.5%
61.7%
90.2% 11.9
Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P2 -0.380% -1.376%
21.8%
54.1%
89.9% 10.4
Charles Leclerc Ferrari P3 -0.185% -1.294%
14.6%
45.4%
88.8% 8.5
Lando Norris McLaren P4 -0.177% -1.025%
10.6%
34.6%
85.7% 6.7
Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P5 +0.188% -1.294%
8.0%
28.9%
84.2% 6.2
George Russell Mercedes P6 +0.390% -1.376%
6.6%
24.8%
81.2% 5.8
Oscar Piastri McLaren P7 +0.179% -1.025%
4.4%
19.0%
77.1% 4.8
Isack Hadjar Red Bull P8 +0.721% -1.053%
1.7%
10.8%
67.7% 2.7
Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team P9 -0.435% +0.244%
1.2%
7.5%
60.9% 1.9
Liam Lawson RB F1 Team P10 -0.066% +0.281%
0.6%
4.1%
48.1% 0.4
Nico Hülkenberg Audi P11 -0.039% +0.376%
0.3%
2.9%
42.9% 0.4
Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P12 +0.041% +0.376%
0.2%
2.0%
35.5% 0.1
Yuki Tsunoda RB F1 Team P13 +0.197% +0.281%
0.2%
1.5%
31.6% 0.1
Jack Doohan Alpine F1 Team P14 +0.353% +0.244%
0.1%
0.8%
26.6% 0.4
Franco Colapinto Alpine F1 Team P17 +0.439% +0.244%
0.1%
0.5%
16.8% 1.5
Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P15 -0.080% +0.691%
0.0%
0.7%
22.7% 0.7
Arvid Lindblad RB F1 Team P16 +0.350% +0.281%
0.0%
0.4%
18.8% 0.9
Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P18 +0.082% +0.691%
0.0%
0.1%
12.4% 1.5
Alexander Albon Williams P19 -0.084% +1.089%
0.0%
0.1%
8.7% 1.3
Carlos Sainz Williams P20 +0.089% +1.089%
0.0%
0.0%
5.4% 1.5
Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team P21 -0.927% +2.441%
0.0%
0.0%
2.4% 1.1
Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P22 -0.770% +2.420%
0.0%
0.0%
2.3% 1.7
Lance Stroll Aston Martin P23 +0.787% +2.420%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2% 0.6
Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team P24 +0.941% +2.441%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1% 1.3

How this works

Each driver's pace score combines their Constructor Pace Index (car speed vs field) and Driver Pace Rating (speed vs teammate). This is blended with their qualifying grid position using a circuit-specific overtaking index - circuits like Monaco weight grid position heavily; circuits like Monza weight pure pace. 10,000 race simulations are run, each drawing from a normal distribution of race randomness with an 8% DNF probability per driver. Win, podium and points probabilities are tallied across all simulations.

When qualifying has not yet taken place, grid positions are estimated from pace rankings.