FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group Stage

Group D

Match predictions and qualification probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

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Group D Standings

Team Pld Pts ELO Qualify% Win%

1 USA 0 0 1880

72.5%

2.0%

2 Turkey 0 0 1838

59.1%

0.9%

3 Australia 0 0 1811

42.9%

0.5%

4 Paraguay 0 0 1738

25.5%

0.1%

Top 2 qualify automatically. 8 best third-place teams also advance.

Fixtures & Predictions

2026-06-13

USA vs Paraguay

USA 65.9%

Draw 5.0%

PAR 29.1%

2026-06-14

Australia vs Turkey

AUS 34.8%

Draw 24.6%

TUR 40.6%

2026-06-19

USA vs Australia

USA 50.1%

Draw 16.2%

AUS 33.7%

2026-06-20

Turkey vs Paraguay

TUR 57.6%

Draw 10.0%

PAR 32.4%

2026-06-26

Turkey vs USA

TUR 34.5%

Draw 21.6%

USA 43.9%

2026-06-26

Paraguay vs Australia

PAR 33.5%

Draw 15.4%

AUS 51.1%