FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Group I
Match predictions and qualification probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Group I Standings
Team
Pld
Pts
ELO
Qualify%
Win%
1
France
0
0
2005
88.6%
8.2%
2
Senegal
0
0
1851
61.3%
0.8%
3
Norway
0
0
1810
34.5%
0.3%
4
Congo DR
0
0
1707
15.7%
0.0%
Top 2 qualify automatically. 8 best third-place teams also advance.
Fixtures & Predictions
2026-06-16
France
vs
Senegal
FRA
67.3%
Draw
5.0%
SEN
27.7%
2026-06-16
Iraq
vs
Norway
IRA
32.8%
Draw
11.6%
NOR
55.6%
2026-06-22
France
vs
Iraq
FRA
79.7%
Draw
5.0%
IRA
15.3%
2026-06-23
Norway
vs
Senegal
NOR
34.5%
Draw
21.8%
SEN
43.7%
2026-06-26
Norway
vs
France
NOR
23.3%
Draw
5.0%
FRA
71.7%
2026-06-26
Senegal
vs
Iraq
SEN
64.8%
Draw
5.0%
IRA
30.2%